The puzzle of Iraq

Recently, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that it is imperative that Iraq becomes a stable, democratic nation with a social contract because this is the best way to defeat terrorism by giving the opponents of terrorism a voice. He cites Palestine as an example where democracy led to a decrease in violence because of the presence of elections that allowed opponents of violence to have a say. Finally, he says that Democrats must support this, because otherwise they are irrelevant.There is a very simple reason why Friedman is wrong, both about the Middle East and about Iraq's position in the middle east. Democracy has nothing to do with terrorism, and a democratic Iraq has not influence on terrorism. What does have an influence on terrorism is the existence of a prosperous state that taps into the New Age technologies, including information technologies, to help provide jobs for people. Friedman is confusing means and ends.

The countries of Southeast Asia have used state-guided economic development, with emphasis on information technology, to improve the welfare of their citizens very quickly. Indonesia has the biggest Muslim population in the world, yet it does not export terrorism.Islam has no inherent connection with terrorism, and neither does democracy. What does have an inherent connection with terrorism are two emotions: humiliation and desperation. The governments of the Middle East, including Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others, may have dictatorships or elected representatives with a social contract, institutions, a constitution, and laws that enforce contracts, but they will disappear unless there are fundamental economics put in place to spread opportunity.

The word "freedom" in this context is rather meaningless. What is most important is the ability of young Arabs to use resources to make their dreams come true. Having access to resources gives young Arabs the ability to dream. The problem is that the distribution of resources is skewed in the middle east toward the ruling families. Even if there is democracy and a social contract, this distribution will remain skewed. Hence, millions of Arab men and women will be out of work, and thus good candidates to become terrorists since they have no other way to make their lives productive and meaningful.The central problem is thinking that terrorism is a question of religion and regime type. In reality, it is a question of economic production and technology.

Allow more people to have access to the economy through technology - as they do in the U.S. and Western Europe - and terrorism naturally decreases because terrorist cells are not able to recruit people who are busy making themselves creative and productive. You need strong states in the Middle East to spread the economy to more people. Democracy by itself does not produce strong states. Technology does produce strong states.